John Cross

Final Bump - Dawg's Blawg Climate Prediction Contest

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Well, this is not a great way to start a contest, but I am going to bend the rules already. I doubt that GISS will post their numbers until mid week so I will extend the deadline to enter the contest to midnight on the 14th. If it turns out that the GISS does post tomorrow, I will be forced to cut off the contest at that time so hurry up and enter your guesses.

OK, here it is - what you have all been waiting for. Your chance to show the professional climatologists that you can do what they do. The Dawg's Blawg Climate Prediction Contest is your chance to predict how warm (or cool) the current year is going to be.
Here are the rules (and yes, I am making them up as I go along).
  1. The data set to use is the GISS data set (since we all know the CRU data set is unreliable).
  2. Since we are all aspiring climatologists, we use the climatological year which runs from December to November inclusive (the D-N) column in the GISS data set.
  3. You must provide two predictions. The first is your prediction for the global temperature anomaly for the year December 2008 to November 2009. The second is a prediction for the month of November 2009.
  4. The winner shall be the person who is closest to the global anomaly. In the case of a tie in the prediction of the anomaly for the year (and I expect a number of correct predictions this late in the year) the one closest to the November anomaly will win. In the event of a tie for both the global and November anomalies, the winner shall be the one who posted their prediction first on the blog here.
  5. Predictions are to be given in the format that the GISS uses (i.e. 66 for 66/100ths of a degree C).
  6. Any method of figuring out the temperatures is permitted: hacked CRU e-mails, bat entrails, dressing up like computer technicians and trying to gain access to data files (to be clear Dawg's Blawg does not condone such behaviour - but I won't disqualify an entry because of it) and you can even use math if you really must.
To the winner goes eternal glory as well as bragging rights for a year. However to make this really special, the winner will also receive the Pirates vs Warming Mug shipped to them (provided you live somewhere where shipping won't cost me a fortune).

However, I expect the November and Global anomalies to be posted by the GISS about mid December so the contest closes at the end of December 13. I will not post a prediction myself since I am acting as adjudicator, but all others (including other members of this Blog) are allowed. In the event of someone coming up with cute ways to circumvent the rules I have put forward (or in fact do anything I don't like) I reserve the right to judge certain responses eligible, and others not. I may make up other rules if I think they are necessary or if I get bored!

That is it! Go to the GISS website (linked above) and familiarize yourself with the data and how they present it. Feel free to ask questions in the comments. I expect that the 2010 Climate Prediction Contest will begin in or around April, so you can consider this one practice.
Good luck!

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This page contains a single entry by John Cross published on December 13, 2009 11:50 PM.

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