John Cross

Second Annual Dawg's Blawg Climate Prediction

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OK, I am going to have to get a new day job - one that leaves me with more time for blogging since I am again late in posting this contest, however it only makes it more exciting.

The Dawg’s Blawg Climate Prediction Contest is your chance to predict how warm (or cool) the current year is going to be. Here are the rules (and yes, I do make them up as I go along).

  1. The data set to use is the GISS (LO) data set (since we all know the CRU data set is unreliable).

  2. Since we are all aspiring climatologists, we use the climatological year which runs from December to November inclusive (the D-N) column in the GISS data set.

  3. You must provide two predictions. The first is your prediction for the global temperature anomaly for the year December 2009 to November 2010. The second is a prediction for the month of November 2010.

  4. The winner shall be the person who is closest to the global anomaly. In the case of a tie in the prediction of the anomaly for the year (and I expect a number of correct predictions this late in the year) the one closest to the November anomaly will win. In the event of a tie for both the global and November anomalies, the winner shall be the one who posted their prediction first on the blog here.

  5. Predictions are to be given in the format that the GISS uses (i.e. 66 for 66/100ths of a degree C).

  6. Any method of figuring out the temperatures is permitted: hacked CRU e-mails, bat entrails, plagiarizing numbers (to be clear Dawg’s Blawg does not condone such behaviour - but I won’t disqualify an entry because of it), and you can even use math if you really must.

To the winner goes eternal glory as well as bragging rights for a year. However to make this really special, the winner will also receive the Pirates vs Warming Mug shipped to them (provided you live somewhere where shipping won’t cost me a fortune). I have it on good authority that Catelli (the winner of last year’s contest) finds that coffee just tastes better and stays warm longer in the global warming mug.

I expect the November and Global anomalies to be posted by the GISS about mid December so the contest closes at the end of December 14, GMT. I will not post a prediction myself since I am acting as adjudicator, but all others (including other members of this Blog) are allowed and encouraged. In the event of someone coming up with cute ways to circumvent the rules I have put forward (or in fact do anything I don’t like) I reserve the right to judge certain responses eligible, and others not. I may make up other rules if I think they are necessary or if I get bored!

My prediction is that this year will be hot and on a side note I am willing to take bets on whether this year will be the warmest in the GISS (LO) data set (I think it will be).

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This page contains a single entry by John Cross published on December 5, 2010 10:17 AM.

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