John Cross

Grey is an interesting colour

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If you look at this graph of the recent polls you can see what we already know - the NDP are on a roll. The fact that they are now within 7% of the CPC is - for lack of a better word - astounding.

However what I find interesting is the grey line. The grey line shows the percentage of undecided voters and as is normal during an election the percentage of undecideds decreases as the election unfolds and people find out more about positions and candidates. However over the past few days this trend has reversed and the undecideds have increased - a lot!

This could mean one of two things. It could mean that we are seeing new voters taking an interest in the election but since they are new they have not made up their mind (or at least they are not saying they have). However I think the other more likely explanation is that we are seeing people rethinking their position and contemplating changing who they vote for.

So what is more likely - the NDP voter is rethinking who he is going to vote for or the Liberal, CPC or BQ (and to be fair I should include the Green Party as well) voter is rethinking who they will vote for? This should mean that the NDP numbers will not soften over the next few days.

However I am not sure this will translate into seats. If you look at the riding statistics you see that most of the seats where the NDP is ahead, they are generally ahead by a lot. However we can see where the NDP are in second but within 5% of the current leader and there are only 8 ridings where this is the case. The 5% is an arbitrary pick of the most a riding can change over the next few days.

Anyway, I am going to go out on a limb here and give my election projection (having no creditably in political science I have nothing to lose by being wrong but a lot to gain by being right - there is a similar phenomena in climate science which I will discuss at some point). The next Canadian Parliament will consist of:

  • BQ 42
  • CPC 140
  • Ind 1
  • Liberal 73
  • NDP 52

Of course poll data is not the same as actual voting especially in such a volatile election so we will have to see what unfolds on Monday. As for me, I will vote as I always do - for the person - which means I vote Conservative provincially and NDP federally - GO Jack!

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This page contains a single entry by John Cross published on April 29, 2011 7:49 AM.

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