John Cross

Idle Speculation

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There was enough discussion about the US election that I thought a new thread about it might be worthwhile (keeping in mind that it is all speculation). One thing that has got to worry the Romney camp is the recent results from Florida. Right now Romney has not been ahead in a Florida poll (according to Nate Silver) since October 24. I am not ready to call Florida for Obama yet, but if (and it is a big if) Obama takes Florida, then it is essentially game over. There is no credible way for Romney to get to 270 EV without it.

Consider what would need to happen. Without Florida I would estimate that he has 206 EVs. That means he would need to scare up 64 more for a win. So, lets give him Virginia and New Hampshire - that gives him another 17 (13 + 4). So he needs another 47 EV.

While Virginia and New Hampshire are what I would call tossups (they may have a slight Obama lean, but nothing I would bet on) the rest of the map seems to be breaking for Obama. In which case, starting at what are (in my opinion) the weakest Obama supporters, Romney would need to get: Colorado (9 EV), Iowa (6 EV), Ohio (18 EV), Nevada (6 EV) and Wisconsin (10 EV). I can’t imagine any scenario where that would happen - especially if Florida goes Democrat.

Also, please share your opinion on the effect of Storm Sandy - will the response help or hurt either player and will this bring climate change into the election?

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This page contains a single entry by John Cross published on October 31, 2012 9:10 AM.

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